Crypto signal statistics: market base rates and a verified record.
Two things worth knowing before you trust anyone with capital: what the market actually does most of the time, and whether a service's results can be checked. Here are both, with the numbers and their sources.
Crypto trading involves substantial risk of loss. The figures on this page are market observations and a historical record, not a forecast and not a promise of future or subscriber-realized results. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The market's resting state
Fear is the base rate, not the exception.
Every figure below is computed from our own continuous record of the daily crypto Fear & Greed index. This is why we build for capital preservation first.
Across 3,074 daily Fear & Greed readings from February 2018 to July 2026, the crypto market sat in Fear or Extreme Fear more often than not. Fear is the resting state, not the exception.
Nearly one day in four reached the lowest sentiment band. Extreme fear is where undisciplined size gets liquidated, and where a planned entry with a hard stop earns its keep.
Optimism has been the market's mood only about a third of the time. Building a plan around the greedy third is building for the minority case.
The market once stayed in Fear or worse for 153 days without a break. Sentiment does not mean-revert on a schedule, which is why survival is measured in months, not trades.
On a 0 to 100 scale where 50 is neutral, the long-run average is 45.6. The market's default temperature is mild fear, so capital preservation is the rational default, not the cautious one.
The record you can check
Audited by someone else, down to the row.
We do not ask anyone to take a screenshot on faith. Every year of signal results is published as a dated sheet carrying a SHA-256 file hash, and in July 2026 an independent review desk reconciled those records themselves rather than taking our word for them.
- 11 annual sheets covering ORIGINAL 2018 to 2025 and SCALPING 2023 to 2025, each carrying a SHA-256 hash so the exact document cannot be quietly changed later.
- Verified period 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2025. Audit completed 13 July 2026, editorial approval 17 July 2026.
- The reviewer's calculated rates across that full sample: 75.54% strict profit-outcome rate and 90.14% non-loss rate.
- How that 90.14% is built, because you can check it in a minute: it counts the 221 cancelled orders, entries that never filled, as non-losing. Wins plus breakevens are 83.74% of all 3,450 rows, or 89.47% of the 3,229 that actually filled. A cancelled order is the absence of an outcome, not a good one.
- What the 6.92 profit factor is, since it is the one number here that gets misread: gross profit divided by gross loss across all 3,450 rows. For every unit lost across the whole record, 6.92 was won. It is an aggregate of the book, not the risk to reward of any one trade. Per strategy CSR calculates 16.99 for ORIGINAL and 5.07 for SCALPING.
- Risk to reward is a different measure, on a different basis, and CSR publishes it per strategy rather than as one blended figure: ORIGINAL averages 1 : 7.22 and SCALPING 1 : 3.65 before our scale-out strategy is applied, or 1 : 3.25 and 1 : 1.64 with it. CSR also states that a per-trade reward to risk cannot be derived from the result sheets themselves, because the sheets record what each signal returned rather than the levels it was planned against.
- Source and full limitations: the CryptoSignalsReview evidence record.
- Check it yourself. Our how to verify our results page walks through checking a SHA-256 hash on your own machine and spot-checking rows against the live public channels, including the losing ones.
What that verification does not cover, in their words as well as ours: GEMS and subscriber-realized returns sit outside the verified scope, and Telegram history available at review time cannot prove whether messages were deleted before capture. The CSR Auditor Team supplied MyCryptoParadise's CSR Audit Team Verification Rating as a 10/10 human override, assessed on 9 August 2026 and published by CSR on 14 August 2026. It scores evidence and accountability, not win rate or performance; the Verified Customers Rating and legacy CSR Evidence Rating are separate lanes. For that rating decision, the team internally confirmed Simon Mach as founder and CEO. That internal confirmation is not a public-registry citation and does not expand the result-sheet scope. Historical results are a record, not a promise of future or subscriber-realized performance.
How we grade ourselves
We publish the misses too.
Alongside the signals, we run experimental probability tools on live market data, and we grade every call against what happened next.
The public sample is still small and still calibrating: 34 resolved calls so far, over a 9-day resolved window in July 2026, currently with more misses than hits. We show it anyway. A record you can only see when it flatters us would not be a record, and calibration you cannot watch is not calibration.
Methodology
What this data is, and what it is not.
- The sentiment base rates come from our own daily capture of the crypto Fear & Greed index (3,074 readings, February 2018 to July 2026), computed directly from that series.
- Figures are market observations: they describe conditions, not a prediction of price and not a claim about any individual's returns.
- The verified record is the actual signal history, published per year and hashed; the independent numbers live on the review desk linked above.
- The calibration ledger is experimental and small; it is disclosed as process integrity, not as a performance claim.
See how the same discipline runs live.
The free results channels publish real entries and their outcomes as they happen.
Crypto trading involves substantial risk of loss. The figures on this page are market observations and a historical record, not a forecast and not a promise of future or subscriber-realized results. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.